01. TransportA rudimentary evaluation of the statistics on population growth, mode of travel, and the current capacities, led to the following conclusions.
By 2041, with no major shift in the mode of travel (60% private, 27% public), the indication was: that peak demand would require 4- to 6-lanes of roadway serving the Southern suburbs and 6-lanes of roadway serving the Eastern suburbs. The number of passengers per hour could still be served by bus alone.
By 2041, with a major mode shift towards public transport (40% private, 45% public), the indication was: peak demand would require 3- to 4-lanes of roadway serving the Southern suburbs and 4-lanes of roadway serving the Eastern suburbs. The number of passengers per hour would completely saturate a bus service and a higher capacity Light Rail service would be required along the Growth Spine to alleviate this.
By 2041, with an extreme mode shift towards public transport (35% private, 50% public), the indication was: peak private vehicle demand could be served by 3-lanes of contraflow roadway serving the Southern suburbs and 3-lanes of contraflow roadway serving the Eastern suburbs. The number of passengers per hour would completely saturate a bus service and a higher capacity Light Rail service would be required along the Growth Spine to alleviate this.
Two transport packages are suggested. The first package is significantly more expensive and proposes an entirely new expressway route to serve both the Southern and Eastern suburbs with the same expressway. The estimated cost was $1.2 billion over 30-40 years. The second package upgrades the existing route and demands significant public transport usage. Two variations on this package exist, one includes an covered expressway between The Terrace Tunnels and Mt Victoria Tunnels, the other removes the bypass, replacing it with an extension to Abel Smith St. The estimate cost was $700m to $900m depending on the variation.
Both packages include Light Rail along the Growth Spine as the very first step. This is to encourage a mode shift towards public transport and meet increasing demands placed on the public transport system. This may also head off increasing equipment costs and lead times caused by increasing demand when peak oil causes countries to re-invest in public transport. New Zealand cannot afford to compete with other richer countries for this equipment.
Key to packages
- Terrace Tunnel and Shell Gully Viaduct duplication
- Future Tram-train or EMU subway right-of-way reserved in plans now for future construction post 2040-2050
- Light Rail right-of-way, some parts shared with bus services
- Te Aro Tunnel, a 4- to 6-lane cut-and-cover tunnel that ends at an at grade intersection with Taranaki St to reduce cost and better control traffic flows
- Memorial Park Tunnel, a 4-lane cut-and-cover tunnel that starts at an at grade intersection with Taranaki St and the Te Aro Tunnel, this would designed and built in conjunction with the Memorial Park if this variation of Package 2 were selected
- Mt Victoria Tunnel duplication and link to Cobham Dr
- Possible future Mt Cook tunnel to link Southern suburbs to the CBD and Te Aro Tunnel (post 2040-2050) if Package 2 is selected and Adelaide Rd ever became to congested
- New Street in Newtown to better distribute traffic, provide more pedestrian linkages as the area intensifies, and permit the closure of parts of Riddiford St to allow a Light Rail/bus right-of-way. Land reserved in council plans immediately.
- Newtown Transit Tunnel (for Light Rail and busses serving Eastern suburbs), one possible example of a route
- Newtown/Zoo Transit Tunnel (for Light Rail and possibly some busses serving Eastern suburbs), one possible example of a route, 20-50% cheaper than above option
- Possible future Light Rail/Streetcar extensions
- Te Aro Tunnel (Package 1), 6-lanes cut-and-cover, with on/off ramps to major streets
- Mt Cook Tunnel (Package 2), 6-lanes, twin bore expressway
- Newtown Tunnel (Package 2), 4-lanes, twin bore expressway
- Abel Smith St extension
Package 1 -- the "OMG I hope we strike it rich in the Southern Ocean Basin package"The major feature of this is the new expressway route which could be completed in phases, this might allow reduced construction costs as one of the bores is completed first, opened to traffic, then the tunnel boring machine (TBM) and associated equipment is reused to complete the second bore. The TBM used for the Newtown Tunnel section might also be able to be used for the two 2-lane expressway bores, and the Light Rail transit tunnel bore.
The expressway would have intersections with Hutchison Rd/John St serving Vogeltown, and Hall/Adelaide Road serving Southern suburbs, and Riddiford St serving Southern suburbs. From the tunnel opening to Riddiford St much of it would be in a trench. The Riddiford Street intersection is also the intersection with the Newtown Tunnel section of the expressway to the Eastern suburbs. This would be at grade so to be less visually intrusive, and later a viaduct completed only if required.
Package 1 Map:
Package 2 -- the "NZ is not rich from oil like Norway package"This package is fairly well understood and is the expected evolution of the city's existing transport routes.
The major variation whether the Memorial Park will have a tunnel constructed, if not then the bypass would be forgone entirely, and the main route would be via Vivian St and Abel Smith St.
Package 2 Map:
Appendix, definitions, assumptions, constraints, etc.
- "Southern suburbs" incorporates: Mt Cook-Wallace Street, Vogeltown, Kingston, Island Bay West, Island Bay East, Melrose, Berhampore, Newtown West, Newtown East, Adelaide
- "Eastern suburbs" incorporates: Hataitai, Kilbirnie East, Kilbirnie West, Lyall Bay, Strathmore Park, Miramar South, Miramar North, Karaka Bay-Worser Bay, Seatoun, Maupuia
- The WRC expects population growth of 0.5% for the region, however
- Growth in the Southern and Eastern suburbs has been 1% over the past 10 years and 2% over the past five years according to Census data. With the major intensification strategies, and increasing migration, a sustained 2% population increase along the growth spine is assumed.
- Based on taking the average from various sources the following transport capacities are assumed.
- Metro - 40,000pph
- Suburban rail - 30,000pph
- Light rail - 15,000pph (dedicated ROW and priority at interesections)
- Bus lane - 7,500pph (some priority at intersections)
- Motorway lane - 2,000vph
- Road lane - 1,500vph
- Sea level rise will not threaten the CBD or Kilbernie, or any sea level rise will be mitigated in some way.
- Any strategy developed for Wellington will be respected by the wider regional strategy (i.e. the region will not continue to build roads to dump cars into Wellington city if the local strategy favours public transport growth).
- EMUs will continue to provide the backbone of Wellington’s wider public transport systems as conversion to a Tram-Train or Light Rail operation is inappropriate in the near term due to many reasons including the recent investment in new EMUs, increased cost per passenger (when suburban rail already exists), and capacity/speed reductions.
- The following costs are based on taking the average from various recent international projects of similar types and Transit/Council reports.
- Dual 3-lane road tunnels: $246,000 NZD per metre
- Dual 2-lane road tunnels: $187,000 NZD per metre
- Single 3-lane road tunnel: $132,000 NZD per metre
- Single 2-lane road tunnel: $93,000 NZD per metre
- Heavy rail 2-lane tunnel: 131,000 NZD per meter